In the national politics of Pakistan, the province of Punjab has become the center of attention of the political circles at this time, where the by-elections in twenty constituencies of the provincial assembly are going to take place on Sunday, July 17. Kante's contest is expected. These by-elections are taking place after the seats of the 20 defected members of the Punjab Assembly of Tehreek-e-Insaf, who were disqualified by the Election Commission for voting against the party policy.
Importance of Punjab by-elections. The by-elections of Punjab have assumed an extraordinary importance in the country's politics. It is the first time in the 74-year political history of Pakistan that the formation or fall of a government has completely depended on the results of the by-elections. Yes, the results of the twenty constituencies of the Punjab Assembly will determine the winner of the throne of Lahore on the one hand, on the other hand, these results will play a key role in the decision of the political future of the Federation, if Tehreek-e-Insaf wins thirteen seats. So, the way to establish his government in Punjab will be paved, while PML-N needs to win at least ten seats to save its government in Punjab.Challenges faced by PTI and PML-N in the by-elections. The biggest challenge facing the Tehreek-e-Insaf is that in the by-elections of Punjab, it not only got the support of allegedly powerful constituencies like in the 2018 general elections. It is not, but on the contrary, this accusation is constantly being made by the head of Tehreek-e-Insaf Imran Khan that in these by-elections, "Empire" is also mixed with Muslim League-Nun. Repeating the accusation again and again. On the other hand, the first challenge faced by the Muslim League-Nun was the difficult decision of giving election tickets to these 20 defected members, as a result of which a large number of League workers and former members of the Punjab Assembly did not accept this decision of the party with consent. So some of the candidates who participated in the election on the League ticket in the 2018 elections have withdrawn from the election campaign in the by-elections of Punjab while protesting against the party decision in some constituencies. Malik Asif Bha from Khushab PP 83, Pir Rafiuddin Bukhari from Lodhran PP 228, and Mohammad Riaz from Leh PP 282 are contesting as independent.
Similarly, in some constituencies, disgruntled League members are participating in the by-elections on PTI tickets, Irfanullah Khan Niazi from Bhakkar PP 90 and Pir Amir Iqbal Shah from Lodhran PP 224 are also contesting on Tehreek-e-Insaf ticket. are fighting Apart from the distribution of tickets, the sharp rise in inflation, and the element of voter anger against defecting members in urban constituencies has also posed a tough challenge for the League candidates. There is no denying the fact that rising inflation in the by-elections of Punjab will surely affect the opinion of the voters, but the Muslim League-Nun is trying hard to eliminate the negative effects on the election results. While the prices of food items are being distributed, free electricity was announced by Chief Minister Punjab Hamza Shehbaz last week, while the prices of petroleum products were reduced by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif just two days before the election. The announcement is part of the same election scheme to woo voters.
Maryam Nawaz is actively participating in the election campaign of the League candidates, where she seems to put the responsibility of inflation on the previous government in public meetings, but will the people believe her claim? Its decision will be possible only in the light of the results of the by-elections. On the other hand, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan's stormy election campaign ended on Friday in his address to the election rallies in Lahore, in which he convinced the people. tried to topple his government through an external conspiracy, after which the country is mired in political chaos, the massive public participation in PTI's rallies shows the popularity of Imran Khan's narrative, but The question is whether Tehreek-e-Insaaf will be able to convert this popularity into vote power or not. This question can also be answered in the light of the results received on July 17.Â
Who will be the winner in Punjab by-elections? Before the Punjab by-elections, both the parties are announcing their victory as usual. Contrary to what appears to be the claims, various opinion polls are coming from media channels, journalistic circles, and local sources which show that in most constituencies, barring a few out of twenty-one constituencies, both A tight contest between the parties is expected, it seems premature and uncertain to claim victory for any party in most of the constituencies. An investigative and analytical report is being presented to assess the latest political situation and predict the outcome.
pp.7 Rawalpindi
The Non-League candidate from this constituency is Raja Sagheer Ahmed, who joined PTI after winning as an independent candidate in the 2018 general elections. Daya, who was elected as a member of the provincial assembly on the ticket of the People's Party in the general elections of 2008. In the last general elections, Raja Sagheer Ahmed got 44 thousand 286 votes, while against him, Raja Muhammad, the son of the League candidate Raja Zafarul Haq. Ali who secured the second position in the constituency by securing 42 thousand 382 votes while PTI's Ghulam Murtaza Sati was third. In addition to the personal vote bank, the League vote will also be available. In the last general election, if the votes of Raja Sagheer Ahmed and Non-League are counted, a total of 86 thousand 668 votes were obtained by two candidates, while PTI's Ghulam Murtaza Sati could get 40 thousand 332 votes, thus the overall lead of Raja Sagheer Ahmed in the last general elections. It reaches 46 thousand 336 votes, despite the popularity of Imran Khan's narrative, it seems to be a difficult challenge for Tehreek-e-Insaf to get the lead by eliminating this double advantage. In terms of local factionalism and the majority of communities having political influence, the position of the League candidate Raja Sagheer Ahmed seems to be slightly better.
pp83 Khushab
In the last general election, independent candidate Malik Ghulam Rasul Singha won by getting 68 thousand 959 votes, while against him, the League candidate Malik Asif Bha was second with 47 thousand 684 votes. had joined Tehreek-e-Insaf, but in this by-election, PML-N has given election ticket to Malik Haider Ali Singha, who is the brother of Malik Ghulam Rasool, PTI candidate in this constituency is Hassan Aslam, who is a former federal minister. And he is the brother of the current Member of the National Assembly Umar Aslam. In this constituency, Muslim League-Nun and Tehreek-e-Insaf are also facing the challenge of independent candidates from their own party. Similarly, the disgruntled activist of Tehreek-e-Insaf Hamid Mahmood Wadhal is also trying his claws as an independent from here. If the position of the party is examined in this constituency, it is known that it will be very difficult for the League candidate Malik Hyder Singha to win this election. There are two main reasons for this. He had withdrawn his candidate in favor of Sangha, as a result of which he got a large number of Tehreek-e-Insaf votes, but in this by-election, the candidate of Tehreek-e-Insaf is contesting the election in a vigorous manner, the second reason is that he is an independent and active candidate in the constituency. The popularity of League worker Malik Asif Bha, who got 47 thousand votes in the last election, although Hasan Aslam of PTI will also have to fight against the independent candidate of his own party, Hamid Mehmood Towana, but the vote bank of Muslim League 9 would be more divided here. It is seen that some local journalists are also claiming that the real contest here is between Hasan Aslam and independent candidate Malik Asif Bha. Hasan Aslam of Justice is being decided as the favorite.
Pp90 Beggar
In this constituency, the candidate of PML-N is Saeed Akbar Khan Nawani, who joined Tehreek-e-Insaf after winning the 2018 general elections. has issued an election ticket to the former general secretary of Muslim League-Nun, Irfanullah Khan Niazi, who received 44 thousand 915 votes while being the runner-up from the Muslim League-Nun in the last general elections. The joining has strengthened the party in Bhakkar and then Imran Khan's grand rally at Darya Khan in the constituency has given life to this contest otherwise Saeed Akbar Khan Nawani would have won from here in a one-sided contest, though still in this constituency. Saeed Akbar Khan Nawani seems to be the strongest among all the candidates and the chances are that he will be elected for the eighth time.
pp97 Faisalabad
Former provincial minister Muhammad Ajmal Cheema is the candidate of Muslim League-Nun in this constituency, he won as an independent candidate by getting 42 thousand 273 votes in the 2018 general elections and later he joined Tehreek-e-Insaf. His main competition in this constituency will be with Ali Afzal Sahi of Tehreek-e-Insaf, who belongs to a big political family of Faisalabad. In this constituency too, reports are being received from local sources that like other constituencies, Muslim League-Nun The workers and supporters of Afzal Cheema are keeping themselves apart from the election campaign of Afzal Cheema. In the last general election, the League candidate Azad Ali Tabasim was in the third place with 35 thousand 298 votes, but he did not participate in the election campaign of Afzal Cheema. It seems to be even, despite all the challenges Afzal Cheema is facing, this constituency is going to have a close run on July 17. Here the victory ratio of both the parties seems to be equal with 50%.
pp.125 Jhang
In this constituency, Faisal Hayat Khan Jabwana is the candidate of PML-N, he joined Tehreek-e-Insaf after winning as an independent candidate in the 2018 general elections. He is from Azam Chela who has been elected two times as Member of Assembly from here. In this constituency, although former Member of Provincial Assembly of PML-N Iftikhar Ahmed Baloch is also contesting as an independent, but the real fight is between Faisal Hayat Jabwana and Azam Chela. In which according to the reports so far, Faisal Hayat Jabwana is leading with a slight lead, but it is expected that even here the competition will not be easy for PML-N.
pp. 127 Jhang
In this constituency, PML-N has issued an election ticket to Maher Aslam Bharwana, who joined Tehreek-e-Insaf after winning the last general election with 27,399 votes. IK Muhammad Nawaz will be from Bharwana who was behind by just 790 votes in the last general elections, but this time his chances of success in the by-elections are bright. Devotees and devotees of Dargah Sultan Bahu and Sial Sharif are supporting Tehreek-e-Insaaf in this by-election. With the joining of politician Sheikh Waqas Akram in Tehreek-e-Insaaf, Nawaz Bharwana's position has been strengthened in this constituency, here PML-N will have to work hard to win.
PPP140 Sheikhupura
In this constituency, PTI defector Mian Khalid Mehmood is the candidate of PML-N who defeated the candidate of PML-N by getting 32 thousand 862 votes on PTI ticket in 2018 general elections. Insaaf's youth activist Khurram Shehzad will be from work. Sheikhupura, though traditionally considered a stronghold of the PML-N, is a predominantly urban constituency with a significant number of middle-class voters. Yes, the magic of Imran Khan's narrative is speaking loudly in the urban circles, that's why we are hoping for a bitter competition in this constituency as well in which Tehreek-e-Insaaf will have to try hard to win.
Pp 158 Lahore
Abdul Aleem Khan, the former provincial minister and defected member of the provincial assembly of PTI from this constituency, defeated the League candidate by getting 52 thousand 299 votes in the 2018 general elections, but in this by-election, the Muslim League-Nun, the runner-up of the last general elections, was defeated. The election ticket has been issued to Rana Ahsan Sharaft, who will face Tehreek-e-Insaf's Mian Akram Usman, who is the son-in-law of PTI leader Mian Mehmood-ur-Rashid. He himself is conducting an election campaign in this constituency. He himself has been elected as a member of the National Assembly from the same area several times in the past. Election surveys are testifying that it will not be easy for the PML-N to win here, but it would not be counter-precautionary to say that the PML-N is in a better position in this constituency at the moment. .
Pp 167 Lahore
Nazir Ahmad Chauhan, a defected member of the PTI assembly from this constituency, is the candidate of Muslim League-Nun, who won 40,704 votes in the 2018 general elections. Yes, in the light of the evaluation of public opinion so far, Tehreek-e-Insaf has a slight advantage in this constituency, the League candidate Nazir Chauhan will have to work hard to win in this constituency.
PP 168 Lahore
This constituency is considered to be the stronghold of Muslim League-Nun, in the last general elections, Federal Minister Khawaja Saad Rafiq was declared successful by getting 34 thousand 114 votes, while against him, the candidate of Tehreek-e-Insaaf could only get 14 thousand 940 votes. Khawaja Saad Rafiq had resigned from this constituency of the Provincial Assembly preferring membership of the National Assembly, as a result of which a by-election was held here and Malik Asad Khokhar of Tehreek-e-Insaf defeated the League candidate from this constituency with a slight margin. In the by-election, Malik Asad Khokhar is contesting on the ticket of PML-N, where he will face Tehreek-e-Insaaf's Malik Nawaz Awan, several local sources are confirming that the position of PML-N is quite stable in this constituency. The possibility is being shown that Malik Asad Khokhar will be successful from here.
PP 170 Lahore
From this constituency too, the Muslim League-Nun has issued a ticket to PTI's defiant assemblyman Muhammad Amin Zul-Qarnain, who defeated the League candidate by getting 25,180 votes in the last general elections. Amin Zul-Qarnain also belongs to the Tareen group. Whose brother Aoon Chaudhry is also the Special Assistant to the Prime Minister, he will compete here with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's Malik Zaheer Abbas Khokhar, who is considered to be the strongest and favorite candidate in this constituency. The chances of winning from this constituency are quite bright for Tehreek-e-Insaf.
PP202 Sahiwal. In this constituency, Muslim League-Nun has issued an election ticket to Malik Numan Langriyal, the defected member of the tarin group. Numan Langriyal won the 2018 general elections with 57 thousand 190 votes on the ticket of PTI. The League candidate could get 44 thousand 196 votes, but in this by-election Noman Langriyal is contesting on the ticket of Muslim League-Non, where he will face Tehreek-e-Insaf candidate Major (R) Ghulam Sarwar, according to local sources. The position of League candidate Numan Langriyal in the constituency is quite stable, if there is no upset, then the prevailing assumption is that the Muslim League-Non will be victorious in this constituency.